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New McCain vs. Hillary and Obama Polls

Big Tent Democrat wrote earlier about the Quinnepac poll showing Hillary leading Barack Obama in Ohio, and PA. From the same poll, via MyDD, about a contest between McCain and Hillary and Obama:

  • Florida: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 42 percent; McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent;
  • Ohio: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 43 percent; McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 percent - McCain 40 percent; Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent.

In Georgia, an Insider Advantage poll today shows:

McCain: 47 percent, Clinton: 40 percent
McCain: 48 percent, Obama: 40 percent

In both contests independent voters said they would vote for McCain by a 52 percent-to-30 percent margin. Among Democrats, 75 percent said they would vote for Clinton. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama.

More...

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McCain Says Obama Ripped Off Hillary's Economic Plan

Barack Obama unveiled an economic plan this week. From the Chicago Sun Times:

Obama's plan today is the most shameless piece of potential plagiarism that I have ever seen," McCain economic advisor Kevin Hassett said.

"He basically took Clinton's words and Clinton's policies and called them his own," Hassett said. "If I were a professor I'd give him an F and try to get him kicked out of school for something this terrible ... I remember Mrs. Clinton saying shared prosperity and I remember the bill that she introduced in August for infrastructure. The fact is these are things Obama has taken as his own without crediting the source of the ideas which was Mrs. Clinton."

Hillary's campaign responds: [More...]

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Joseph Wilson: Why Obama's Lacking in Foreign Policy Affairs

Former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson makes some interesting points on why Barack Obama's foreign policy positions show his relative ineptitide in this area.

He also uses a past exchange between Obama and John McCain to show Obama isn't a fighter and may be one who capitulates too easily.

But will Mr. Obama fight? His brief time on the national scene gives little comfort. Consider a February 2006 exchange of letters with Mr. McCain on the subject of ethics reform. The wrathful Mr. McCain accused Mr. Obama of being "disingenuous," to which Mr. Obama meekly replied, "The fact that you have now questioned my sincerity and my desire to put aside politics for the public interest is regrettable but does not in any way diminish my deep respect for you."

Mr. McCain was insultingly dismissive but successful in intimidating his inexperienced colleague. Thus, in his one known face-to-face encounter with Mr. McCain, Mr. Obama failed to stand his ground.

Of Obama's foreign policy pronouncements, Wilson says: [More...]

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Hillary Maintains Lead in Rhode Island Poll

A Brown University, Rhode Island poll taken Feb. 9-10 shows Hillary Clinton maintaining her lead over Barack Obama, 36% to 28% with 27% uncommitted and 9% undecided. In September, Hillary's support was at 35%, so she gained a point. Obama gained substantially, from 16%
to 27%, garnering the votes of those previously for Edwards, Biden, Dodd, etc., but he's still 9 points behind Hillary. The undecided/uncommitted votes now are at 36%, in September they were at 35%.

Rhode Island's primary day is March 4, same as Texas and Ohio. The full poll results are here (pdf.) [More...]

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Hillary and Obama Won't Be Sticking Around East Coast

Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will be in Virginia, Maryland or D.C. tomorrow night after the primaries.

Hillary will be campaigning in El Paso, TX while Obama will be in Madison, WI. (Via Al Giordano at RuralVotes.)

Hillary will be in San Antonio on Weds, although more events may be added.

While Chelsea Clinton has been making the rounds of college campuses in Wisconsin, Hillary won't be there until Saturday night, three days before the primary. Obama hasn't been in Wisconsin since October, but his wife Michelle is already there holding roundtables.

Hillary has agreed to appear at a Wisonsin debate, but Obama has not yet responded.

Clinton also agreed to appear at a debate at Marquette University, but Obama has not responded to the invitation. U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin and Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton called on him Monday to do so, saying it was the best way for Wisconsin voters to see where the candidates stand on issues.

The youth vote will be big in Wisconsin, which will favor Obama.

If history is any judge, many of those who turn out for the primary will be first-time voters. In the 2004 general election, the state had the second-highest turnout of young voters. Minnesota was No. 1.

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AP Poll: Hillary Leads Obama, 46% to 41%

You might have missed that in today's Associated Press poll, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 46% to 41%. The reason: The headline to the articles about the poll all say "Obama Leading McCain." (Big Tent Democrat discusses other aspects of the poll here.)

In the fight for their party's nomination, Clinton has a 46 percent to 41 percent edge over Obama, the Illinois senator. That represents virtually no change from last month but a significant tightening since last year, when the New York senator led comfortably in most surveys.

...Democrat Barack Obama would narrowly defeat Republican John McCain if they were matched today in the presidential election, while McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton are running about even, according to new general-election sentiment since the Super Tuesday contests.

So the AP would rather talk about last year than last month, when the big news this month has been Obama's surge...yet it hasn't resulted in a lessening of her lead.

As to the McCain factor, Hillary and McCain are 45% to 46%, essentially a tie. Obama-McCain is 48 to 42%. Then there's this: [More...]

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Comparing Hillary and Obama on Crime Issues

The San Francisco Chronicle has an article today by Bob Egelko comparing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on crime issues.

Shorter version: They are pretty similar and not particularly liberal (certainly not as much as I would like them to be.)

There are some things I take issue with. For more on Obama's record on crime and defendants' rights, see my earlier analysis here.

It's true, as the article says, that while both support the death penalty, Obama worked to revise it in Illinois to prevent wrongful convictions and Hillary was an early and consistent supporter in Congress of the Innocence Protection Act.

But neither one opposes the death penalty for the guilty. Obama, for example, supported legislation in Illinois to increase crimes eligible for the death penalty -- specifically for those convicted of brutal murders of the elderly and mentally disabled. (Chicago Tribune, May 2, 2001, available on Lexis.com) He also supports it for heinous crimes.

More...

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Hillary and Obama on 60 Minutes

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are on 60 Minutes tonight.

If you watched, tell us what you thought. Was the coverage even? Did it change your mind or add to your conviction as to which candidate to support?

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The Jefferson-Jackson Day Speeches: Viriginia

Here's a thread for the speeches delivered by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at tonight's Virginia Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. (Earlier thread on this here.)

Here is an AP summary of Hillary's speech.

Obama's speech sounds very similar -- almost a replica -- of this one he gave in Denver last week.

Update: 8:53 pm ET: There's your JFK references I predicted earlier, Ted Sorenson at work -- two in one parapgraph.

We’re the party of a man who overcame his own disability to tell us that the only thing we had to fear was fear itself; who faced down fascism and liberated a continent from tyranny.

And we’re the party of a young President who asked what we could do for our country, and the challenged us to do it.

More...and question for Obama supporters below:

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Hillary's Campaign Responds to Obama's Win Today

The votes aren't fully counted, but it's pretty clear that as expected, Barack Obama will win big today in Washington State, Nebraska and Louisiana. Hillary Clinton's campaign as released the following statement:

(Shorter version: We're concentrating on Ohio and Texas.)

Tonight there are contests in three states that the Obama campaign has long predicted they would win by large margins. According to a spreadsheet that was obtained by Bloomberg News, the Obama campaign predicted big victories in Washington State, Nebraska and Louisiana.

The Obama campaign has dramatically outspent our campaign in these three states, saturating the airwaves with 30 and 60 second ads. The Obama campaign has spent $300,000 more in Louisiana on television ads, $190,000 more in Nebraska and $175,000 more in Washington. [More...]

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Tonight's Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in Virginia

Obama delivered a good speech at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in Iowa. Tonight there is another one, in Virginia.

More than 6,000 party activists and donors are expected to pack the Stuart C. Siegel Center to hear to Clinton and Obama as both campaigns increasingly view Virginia as the major prize of Tuesday's primary. Clinton is scheduled to speak at 8:30 p.m. About two hours later, Obama is planning to address the crowd.

Expect Obama's speech to be a good one...I also anticipate it will be laced with JFK references or else sound reminiscent of him. Why? Ted Sorenson, JFK's speechwriter is on board his campaign.

Sorenson, who turns 80 in May, has long been retired from actual speechwriting but he now feels compelled to lend creative service to who he feels is the country's best option right now: Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. "I endorsed Barack Obama for president... because he is more like John F. Kennedy than any other candidate of our time," Sorensen said recently.

Sorenson has experience working with Obama's young speechwriters.

According to reports, Sorenson has now become close with the young speechwriters in Obama's camp -- and has occasionally thrown in a creative phrase or a clever one-liner to be used during one of the senator's future exhortations. In addition, Sorensen is said to be giving advice and support to the Obama campaign.

As I've said here many times, speechwriters write speeches, candidates deliver them. No matter what words Sorenson feeds Obama, he is not JFK. [More...]

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Will Obama's Wave Crash at the Shore?

Interesting perspective today in the Toronto Star on the Obama wave:

It's the rumble of a political movement, a Barack Obama wave, building in the distance, about to break in a tsunami of inspiration, a torrent representing a clean break from old ways and a new chapter in American history. It is a national chant of "Yes We Can" swamping Hillary Clinton.

But the Obama wave breaks just short of the shore every time it appears ready to wash away everything in its wake.

For all the fervour of the arena rallies, the rapt thousands who hang on the senator's every word and call back to him with religious zeal, the wave has not crashed with all the ferocity bottled up in those venues.

What may be preventing the wave from cresting: the working class, women and 11th hour voters: [More...]

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